@Revolution:Global Business News

New Economy, Leadership, Entrepreneurship, Management, Global Business

Economic Studies

Posted by iBlog on January 6, 2008

Struggling credit markets, slumping stocks, and a sliding dollar have been generating anxiety among executives and policy makers in early 2008. Amid the turmoil, it’s easy to forget that long-term structural change in the world’s capital markets will probably prove more important than short-term fluctuations, as it did after the 1987 US stock market crash, the 1992 assault on the British pound, and the 1997 unraveling of Asia’s financial markets.

Recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) research highlights several trends that look set to continue during the years ahead, long after the present bout of market turbulence has ended:

  • the continued growth and deepening of global capital markets as investors pour more money into equities, debt securities, bank deposits, and other assets around the world
  • the soaring growth of financial markets in emerging economies and the growing ties between financial markets in developed and developing countries
  • the shift of financial weight in Asia from Japan toward China and other fast-growing emerging markets
  • the growing financial clout of the eurozone countries and the significance of the euro
  • the burgeoning role of oil-rich Middle Eastern countries as suppliers of capital to the world, along with the rise of new financial hubs in the Middle East to complement the rapidly growing hubs in London and Asia

While these trends reflect a shift in financial power from the United States toward other parts of the world, the sheer size and depth of the US market will give it a leading role on the international financial stage for years to come.1

The exhibits that follow track the progress of these long-term shifts. The research rests on several proprietary MGI databases that cover the financial assets, cross-border capital flows, and foreign investments of more than 100 countries since 1990. Most of the analysis focuses on developments through 2006, the most recent year for which comprehensive data are available. But some data also show that many of the broad trends continued through late 2007 and will probably persist in years to come.

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